10 thoughts on “!!! ShortES NOW tg=2790.00 st=2800.50 ts=15:50 (disc)

  1. premise: just a normal mean-reversion trade, looking at the dailies. Target is in front of yesterday’s HOD.

    reasons NOT to like the trade: YM, ES, and NQ all look like there could be another push higher, and the stop is not a big percentage of yesterday’s range. 10:30 is often a time for rallies to get underway. All time highs often just keep on running, so today could trend higher, easily. For ES to hit its target, NQ will probably need to pull back fairly deeply into yesterday’s range. And for TF, it’s moreso a concern.

    reasons to LIKE the trade: statistically, mean reversion after 2 trend days is likely. You might say 3 days back was a trend day, which makes gap fill statistically more likely. YM has a LONG way to go before it hits its yesterdays HOD, so there’s a fair bit of “free fall” area for it to traverse.

  2. If the ES breaks HOD here, it’ll also be breaking the Globex high, a pop is possible. Also, NQ near today’s HOD, more fuel for a pop if it breaks simultaneously. Emotionally, that’ll be scary. The proper thoughts to be having is revisiting the original premise for the trade, not focusing on the fear that the moment can produce.

  3. Slow, slow, slow action. Makes the phrase “never short a dull market” come to mind. 🙂 TF, last couple 5 minute bars are interesting, but it hasn’t broken HOD yet. YM is almost flat-lining, so a break either way will be a little more likely to be interesting. Like almost all trades, there are mixed signals, and the shorter the timeframe you examine, the more things are random. Might be a good time to walk away from the screens & quit worrying.

  4. OK, EVERYTHING that just happened is good for the trade. Not that any money is in the bank, but still good things. YM, and TF all had range expansion, down. ES hasn’t yet. If this were to be a trend day up, right now would be a likely time for ES to base & then start going back up. So, as always, there are “good signs” and “bad signs” simultaneously. My own condidence will go up, if the ES has, say, 6 ticks, of range expansion below its LOD.

  5. Big picture, I don’t see any reason to be “happy” with the trade, and don’t see any reason to be “unhappy,” either. If being either triggers a person into modifying a trade, it’d be an emotions-based decision, not a fact/stats-based decision.

  6. Just got feedback – sorry for the time stop on the original post. Maybe I should change my template to just say something like “end of regular trading hours.”

  7. WOO-HOO!! A winner! Happy with this, + 5 ticks. Life is good.

    In hindsight, I probably should have considered two more things before putting on the trade – the size of the target excursion, relative to the length of the trading day, and the fact that it was likely to be slow low volume. Like all discretionary trades, it’s hard to learn from the outcome of just one trade.

    What matters in the end is the trade history over a longer period of time.

    I think this is like 6 or 7ish winners in a row, for posted trades. Happy about that!

    A great winner!!

    I’ll likely have time to post trades much more this week. Have a great Monday!

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