13 thoughts on “Short ES NOW tg=2539.00 st=2542.50 ts=16:00 (Disc)

  1. Basic idea is that there are more players left in long right now than short. The long players want to exit by end of the day. If you look at the dailies, there were probably a lot of folks entered long expecting more range expansion to the upside, from the last two days’ ranges. Partculaly given how th NQ opened.

  2. it’s a risky play, relative to short squeezes, I believe. One reason to “feel bad” about the trade is that end-of-the-day consolidation would point to a move higher, back toward today VWAP. A lot of traders play the close toward VWAP. Me, I’m hoping for some scared hands & fear at the close.

  3. Still 13 minutes left in the trade. It’s about the right time to be trading either short or long squeezes.

  4. Hmm. NQ didn’t run when broke LOD. Target back to 2539.00. Just want break below ES LOD + 2 ticks.

  5. All considered, I’m pretty happy with this trade. Didn’t lose, and there was a good chance things would have broken down at the close for a close at/near LOD. All we needed was a tick past the LOD, which could have happened, even if there were a bunch of bids just under the LOD. It was a nice scalp set-up. Some win, some lose, some break even. This was a good trade. If you look at the NQ and YM, they both blipped below their LODs – if the ES had done the same, we’d be out with a nice scalp profit. …. I’m happy with the trade; it had a positive expectation, I’m sure. I’d trade it again.

  6. Just got done watching t&s. About 40 seconds before 16:00 and again about 40 seconds before 16:15, there’s usually a flood of orders come in. Today, ahead of 16:00, there was more green than red. So, fundamentally, the premise of the trade was off. That is, there was a balance of folks that needed to BUY to close their positions, more than folks that needed to sell. Price moved just a tad, so I wouldn’t count this as a big squeeze of any sort. … So, what do we learn from this? The trade, effectively, was a success. It wasn’t a loss, and the expected price action occurred in both NQ and YM. This is a great example of a trade that could have made money, for something other than the underlying premise of the trade. The lesson to learn is that what matters is whether you make money or not. It’s not so important to see the market do what you expect. This is a big, big, & very hard to learn, lesson, for a lot of the folks who tend to get into trading. I’m an engineering type – we like to be right. The basic core psychological trap, is wanting to be RIGHT more than you want to MAKE MONEY.

  7. Side observation: I’ve had a theory that the rush of orders at 15:59:20 ish, and 16:14:20ish, tend to both be in the same direction, if the imbalance of orders at 15:59:20 is great. I’ve watched this many times, and it seems empirically to be true. I’ve never back-tested it, and I’m not sure how trade-able it is. Execution errors could kill you, if you don’t get filled on your exit, too, so it’s a gutsy way to trade. But I suspect it’d be fun, and make a little money over time. For folks who like inflection trades (tiny stop loss, big target), it’s a dreamy setup. …. If someone out there knows, generally, what sort of institutional traders tend to want to close at 16:00, vs 16:15, I’d love to hear.

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