33 thoughts on “*** Sell ES NOW Targ=2641.00 Stop=2661.25 TS=eod (disc)

  1. Premise is mean reversion, looking at the daily charts, and looking for a meaningful pullback.

  2. reasons NOT to like the trade: Never short a dull market. There already was a pullback, 12:15 to 12:45. NQ has already broken above Friday’s range.

    reasons to like the trade: Entry was reassuring with NQ and TF off their HODs. The range so far today is nice sized, relative to average range. ES and Dow haven’t broken out of Friday’s range. Trend channel breaks on Dow and TF 5 min charts.

  3. To hit the target, we’ll need to pull back to the 12:45 short term pullback lows. It’s a very very obvious price level, looking at the ES, NQ, and Dow 5 minute charts, so a lot of traders will be watching it. I’m sure some folks looking for a good long entry would find that level appealing.

  4. If overall markets go down a bit right now, the NQ will hit interesting points sooner than other markets – the 12:41 and 12:58 lows. Might be interesting to watch that.

  5. way, way, waaaay too early to be enthused, but this drop feels good right now. Price has moved 2.25 points in our favor. That’s a good thing.

  6. Depending on how it’s drawn, the NQ is below the low end of a trend chanel now. And below the 12:58 low, flirting with the more significant 12:41 low. There are a kabrillion ways to draw trend chanels, not sure how many folks will be looking at it right now in the NQ. But, still, the ones who are looking, think the trend’s broken & will be looking for a reversal or at least more pullback.

  7. All things considered, I don’t see any reason to be enthused at this point. Fading a HOD is a trade that takes a long time to resolve. And the herky/jerky action can be interpreted a lot of ways. No need to smoke Hopium here. Intelligent, logical action is to just wait & see, unemotionally, and accept whatever happens.

  8. Lots of mixed signals here. There are traders who are seeing an ascending wedge on the ES right now. Others are seeing TF nearly at a new HOD. On the flip side, others are seeing that NQ hasn’t gotten to a new HOD, is breaking down below a trend chanel, and is about to pierce below the 12:41 bar.

  9. No need to get either stressed, or worried, at this point. If we get some moves down, I’ll let myself feel a little glee, but it doesn’t tell me anything about the overall likelihood of this trade working or not working.

  10. TF traded at HOD. Range on the last 9 ES 5minute bars is really small. The slightest wiggle here could take ES to HOD & then another pop could happen. TF could be the nugdge. Still, NQ far from its HOD. Mixed signals still.

    When in doubt, look at the higher time frames. Dailies still tell the same story, especially if TF, ES, and Dow stay in Friday’s range, and NQ doesn’t pop above it any more.

  11. OK, so let’s analyze that pop above HOD on the ES. Prior HOD was 51.25, the pop went to 53.75, that’s 2.50 points. I suspect, for a environment where the daily ranges are 70ish points, no one found that compelling.

  12. Still, mixed signals. Right now, at this exact moment in time, the last few minutes of price action can make a person feel really estatic, and if short maybe even vindicated. But all that’s just emotions coming out from watching a tiny, tiny amount of price action over a very short time.

    More meaninful tells are NQ below 6583 (it’s there) or ES below 41.25.

  13. Stop to 53.50. Idea is, that if ES gets back to breaking HOD after a pull back like this, it’ll pop some & would hit our prior stop.

  14. We’ve gotten to 44.75 now at this point. That’s 4.50 points of favorable excursion. That feels good. 🙂

  15. OK, now, no matter how you like to draw them, the lower trend channel lines are broken on ES, NQ, Dow, and TF markets.

  16. Price has now made it to 43.25. That’s 6 points of favorable excursion. Yep, feels good.

  17. one tick from target. bouncing around quite a bit. erratic. might take a slightly early exit

  18. After-the-trade thoughts: All things considered, I’m just simply very happy with the trade. Fading a HOD or LOD is tricky, in terms of resisting the temptation to read the tea leaves as the trade progresses, interpreting any little thing to be more meaningful than it is. Almost by definition, when the overall markets reverse, some indications will still be pointing in the direction of the prior trend, while others point in the opposite direction. So, again almost by definition, it will be stressful and nearly fruitless to try to discern a tell, at that point in time.

    The pullback occurred so far after 12:42 bar, that the significance of that bar’s low wasn’t as meaningful, so I think maybe I should have left the original target in place, or, actually, made it a bit more aggressive. The trade would have made even more money, for sure.

    All things considered, a very good trade. I’m completely happy with it.

Comments are closed.