28 thoughts on “Buy ES NOW tg=2840.00 st=2800.00 ts=eod (disc)

  1. It’s called catching a falling knife. This sort of trade is always emotional for me. For example, right now, at this exact instant, I feel pretty good about the entry. At this exact instant. An instant later, I might feel that I got in way early.

  2. The risk/reward ratio on this trade, basically, will determine the win %. So, emotionally, it’s good to realize that this sort of trade is going to have, more or less, a 50/50 win ratio, even though the setup in general might have a profitable expectation. Human nature being what it is, it’s tempting to focus on the outcome of this one particular trade, rather than the profitability, over time, of trading this setup.

  3. It’s too early to have an informed opinion, but at this point, I’ll let myself feel good about the entry.

  4. At this exact point in time, only 4 ticks of negative excursion, and 18 ticks of positive excursion. I’ll let myself feel good about that.

  5. All things considered, this is a pretty gutsy trade. Not only are we thinking we’ll catch the falling knife at just the right point, but we’re also betting on range extension to the upside. It’s a fair bet that, if price does get up to the HOD, it’ll pop up some. It’s got a long way to go, that’s a lot of range. So this trade, although it might hit the stop quickly, would most likely take a long while to get to the target. Time stop is end-of-day.

  6. I suspect a lot of chart watchers out there are looking at the levels from around 10:13 – 10:18. I’m going to say a lot of intraday traders will sense that if all markets rise above that convincingly, that the market overall has a high probability of having found its LOD.

  7. At this point, the NQ is now in the middle of it’s range today. The ES isn’t yet back to mid-range, and the YM is less back into its range than the ES. Way too early to be speculating, but if things stay in lock – step, NQ would be the first to reach HOD. That’s an OK thing.

  8. NQ is at it’s open now. Folks watching the daily bars will be seeing it turn green now. Not something to hang a huge amount of confidence on, but, a good thing. TF will be next to show green on the dailies.

  9. Something to be happy about: So far, 5 ticks of negative excursion, and 37 ticks of positive excursion. Yep, very happy about the entry.

  10. Nice action to watch here. ES right at the open. I believe it tends to pause, more so than the other markets, at levels like this. Today could be an exception, though.

  11. All markets are now green for the day. Let’s see if the opens end up being support. So far, this trade has been a dream. Pretty much perfect.

  12. TF and NQ near HODs, but it was a pop that got them there. Hard to believe those markets will pierce HODs at this exact moment, w/o some sort of wiggles. Let’s watch.

  13. Now, 5 ticks of negative excursion vs 56 ticks of positive excursion. So much fun. So far, a dream trade. It’s fun to enjoy it while these sorts of things happen. Still, best to watch carefully as NQ and TF play with their HODs, and also see how eS acts around its open.

  14. TF actually close to yesterday’s LOD. YM, ES, and NQ have a lot more “clear space” in their gaps from yesterday.

  15. Considering altering targ/stop. Targ at 35.00 would prob occur as TF & NQ flirt with their HODs. And moving the stop is logical, since if we break LODs, prob much more (and fast) downward movement should be expected.

  16. So now, the challenge is to *not* play the woulda/coulda/shoulda game. It’s a no-win activity. Thoughtful post-trade analysis is what’s called for. Hard to do, admittedly, at this exact moment. So I’ll watch & learn for a while.

  17. Still, just called out a hugely profitable trade. No matter where the market meanders now, it’s a good day. A wonderful day.

  18. If you look at the fibs, and average the markets, it’s a 50% retrace from the 10:08 to 10:37 movement. There are probably a lot of cool heads getting LONG right now.

  19. NQ and TF at broke HODs. ES traded at the 35.00 target (that I had in mind) for a while. Not sure if I’d have been filled. The coulda-woulda-shoulda trap is pulling me in.

  20. Logical thoughtful considerations. So at this point, all markets have pulled a 75% retrace of their day’s range – that would have been a good call, for a target, once that range was obvious. So, if that had been the logic, targets would have been hit on all 4 markets. The NQ & TF, though, have already done what I predicted for the ES, that is, alos broke the HOD & gotten a boost for a little range expansion. It’s just a statistical thing, but a pretty good bet considering their were no meaningful significant levels for the markets to pass, except for TF’s yesterday’s LOD. Now, at this exact point in time, the TF and NQ have already done what was expected. The granddaddy, ES, hasn’t pierced HOD. So the “push” that TF & NQ would have given the ES, has already occurred, but it wasn’t times such that it boosted any break of the ES HOD. Sooo, thoughtful analysis: I’m happy with taking the early exit.

  21. ES might still break it’s HOD. But it’s not something I’ll put money on, based on the facts at hand right now. It makes sense to adopt an attitude that “there will always be good set-ups coming up soon.” The worst thing to do would be being tempted to re-enter long, based on the emotional desire to make back some of the money that I might be leaving on the table – that would be a primarily emotions-based decision. Emotions aren’t good predictors of what the markets are about to do. Data-based thoughtful intelligent consideration is a much better tool.

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