19 thoughts on “Buy ES NOW tg=2800.00 st=2790.00 ts=eod (disc)

  1. Reasons not to like the trade: already bounced a bit before took entry. For Risk/reward of 1, stop is right about at LOD, a couple points below LOD might have a higher prob of success.

    Reasons to like the trade. Oversold on dailies, by many measures & a lot of individual big stocks show the same. Nice sized daily range has already been put in. No critical levels to traverse between entry and target.

  2. At this exact moment, 4 ticks negative excursion, 8 ticks positive. A reason to allow yourself to feel happy, at the moment.

  3. At this exact moment, the trade is 3 points from the target, and 7 points from the stop. If you knew nothing else and assumed the action will be random, we’re in a good position. Another reason to feel good about the trade.

  4. Wow, what a great trade so far. Almost giddy. Giddiness can made for bad decisions, too. Something to be mindful of.

  5. The earlier TF push to LOD made for a double bottom, not a BO downward. It’s pushing toward LOD again, something to watch.

  6. Looks like TF is done flirting with its LOD. If it breaks teh 10:29 bar high, might be boost, given how that market moves. A TF blip up could nudge other markers. Just a tad.

  7. Wow. Glancing back at the price action, I’m not seeing a single thing not to like about this trade. Absolutely beautiful! Will give more thought to it in a moment. But for, now, reveling in what might be a perfect trade. Life is good! I’m happy.

  8. Post trade thoughts:

    Put-zing with the target/stop – it was a discretionary trade, so it’s futile to think you learn from a sample of one trade. And, in general, with discretionary trades, you’ll never know with surety what was proper to do. I think in this one trade, it was driven somewhat by the fear of seeing TF flirt with its lows.

    Original placement of the target: I eyeballed what a 50% retracement of the HOD to LOD, and my eyes were drawn to the even number 2800.00. Math puts it at 2798.50, 6 ticks below the even number. Mean reversion, looking at the dailies, called for a target perhaps even significantly higher target. So anywhere around 2800.00 would have probably been fine.

    Original placement of the stop: I know a lot of successful traders who focus WAY more on the stop placement, than the target. Placing a stop very near a HOD or LOD seems iffy, given that the prevailing thought is that those levels are attractors for price action, should price action get near them. The placement that was chosen, gave me the very, very, very juicy Risk/Reward of 1.0, so this trade was very profitable given the position size. Very juicy. So, yep, this trade was very profitable, but if I were to be faced with this trade 1000 times, I might want to figure out, systematically, the optimal stop placement.

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