22 thoughts on “*** Buy ES NOW Targ=2736.75 Stop=2731.00 TS=eod (disc) Terms of Use at TheHappyQuant.com

  1. Reasons NOT to like the trade: no recent pullbacks, YM is lackluster, tight stop (a scalp), no other technical signals, RTY is bumping up against last 2 days HODs.

    Reasons to LIKE the trade: “Never short a dull day,” 3 markets were on verge of simultaneous BO (each BO nudges the others), trend will prob look clear to many on the NQ & ES charts, would hit target before ES HOD 5/22, NQ has clear space above on the dailies.

  2. A few minutes ago, RTY broke its HOD, but there wasn’t a boost to anything else, and RTY didn’t run. Right now, NQ, RTY, and ES are all about to break out simultaneously.

  3. WINNER + 5 ticks.

    After – the – trade – thoughts:

    First blush: I left money on the table. Yes, that happened.

    Big picture, this was a scalp, discretionary trade. Two reasons to not take it too seriously, and not to try TOO hard to learn from it. Scalp trades have small targets and/or tight stops, so the outcome on any one trade is pretty random. And, discretionary trades – since you’re changing everything on-the-fly, there’s no opportunity to learn anything along the lines of “so if I did this 1000 times the same way, would it work?”

    The original premise was just simply expecting a pop when markets broke their HODs simultaneously, on a day when the general trend everywhere was UP. There’s debate about how to time an entry on break-outs, I believe the perfect answer is “one second before the actual breakout,” but of course that’s, well, problematic. On this trade, ES hadn’t actually broken out. So, for me, the real question on this trade is whether I should have stayed in the trade when the BO hadn’t occurred in the first couple minutes. Effectively, my premise for the trade wasn’t met, so what sort of trade was I in? Not a break-out, because it didn’t happen. It’s cool to talk to traders about this general topic, that is, can you get into a trade for one reason, then stay in it for another. I don’t know the answer (it’d be impossible to backtest a vague idea like that.) Some traders will let a day trade turn into a swing trade, IF it’s going in their favor – that kinda/sort makes some sense to me.

    In this case, the question for me, was do I let a scalp BO trade turn into a intra-day trend follow trade? My stop was, coincidentally, almost big enough, depending on how you drew the trendlines. But, I don’t really ordinarily trade trend lines, and today there weren’t any regular pullbacks anyway.

    I’m going to tally myself with one mistake, not exiting when the BO didn’t occur quickly.

    You could also say I made a second mistake by exiting the way I did. If I had stayed in the trade because it was an OK trend continuation trade, then I should have had conviction with the target & stop that would have made sense for that sort of trade – 36.75 was a good target; I could have stayed with that & made more money.

    Such is trading. Sometimes you make money & don’t know why. Sometimes you lose money & don’t know why. The only thing that matters is how things come out at the end of the year, after hundreds or thousands of trades.

    But, having said all that, WOOOOO – HOOOOO a winner!

  4. Nice trade…..

    But your reinforcing the habit that you said you want to break…. Discretionary instead of your mechanical signals.

    Have a good weekend.
    William

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